Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Morning Update/ Market Thread 1/10

Good Morning,

Equity futures are soaring, the dollar is down, bonds are a little lower, oil is roaring higher of course, gold & silver are rising strongly of course, and food commodities continue to gag, but are mixed this morning.

The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index gained 1.8 points to reach 94.1, it was the fourth gain in a row. Here’s how the NFIB, whose commentary is usually pretty level, describes the past year for small businesses:
From the perspective of NFIB owners, 2011 was a flat year at best. The Index of Small Business Optimism stood at 94.1 in January and ended the year at 93.9, after dipping as low as 88.1 in August. The best that can be said is that the year ended on an upbeat, with 4 months of improvements. Eight of the ten Index components did end the year higher, the spoilers were Expected Business Conditions in 6 Months, which ended the year 18 points below January readings, and Expected Real Sales Volumes which ended 4 points lower. So, an index that excluded these expectations variables would have ended the year a bit higher.

Below is the entire report from the NFIB:

NFIB Small Business Confidence January 2012

Wholesale Trade is released at 10:00 Eastern this morning.

In yesterday’s report I made two errors that need correcting. The first is that I referred to M1 rising 31% in the past year when what I meant to say is Base Money rose by that amount:

Base Money:


In fact M1 was up about 17% over the past year:


The other is that I posted the wrong chart when discussing the percent change in CPI, the correct chart is below, and indeed it shows the advertised 3.4%, when yesterday’s chart was showing the change in the index. My apologies…

CPI Percent Change Year over Year:


I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.