Friday, February 3, 2012

Ground Hog Day Continues !

Now my alarm clock didn't blare Sonny and Cher singing  " I got you babe "  this morn , but i swear it's still Ground hog Day again ! First things first - didn't we go through the whole Greek Second Rescue Deal is just days away yesterday ? I mean the deal was going to be reached by Friday - yet now we see it's still in the just days away mode as we learn further details on the talks. for example , the Troika has told the finance and Labor Ministers that the country's labor system must be cut to the bone - to the tune of salaries and pensions being cut 25 percent ! Yup , those were the glad tidings the Troika dropped on temporary PM L-Pap , who then was given the joyful task of relaying that to the political party chiefs ! How might that be received by New Democracy , Pasok and Laos ? Well , i can't say for sure - but what I do know is that the critical meeting between L- Pap and the party chief ( which has slipped from Wednesday to Thursday , from Thursday to Friday , then from Friday to Saturday ! If you think that is a good sign of how the good news L-Pap has to share will be received by the major greek parties - i have a bridge for sale just for you ! Meanwhile the PSI talks are in suspended animation , no one has a clue what the official creditors such as the ECB will do ( if anything to ease Greece's pain ) and NOW the talk is that the ECB and IMF may have to give Greece a bridge loan to cover the March 20th bond payments of 14.5 billion euros. while today is Febuary 3rd , Greece is still living Ground hog Day all over again ! 

     The tragic events in Egypt where at least 74 people were killed , many crushed to death in the panic surrounding a riot after a soccer match , underlines that Egypt has been in ground hog Day mode almost a year after their revolution began ! Police have been accused by one group of fans at the match of allowing rivals to  attack them - allegedly due to the belief that the  victims had supported the protests over the past year, first against former President Mubarak , now against the Military government ! The more things change , the more they stay the same ? Or is it the more things stay the same , the reality is that no change has occurred at all ? Or perhaps let's just say Egypt is living Ground Hog Day - for about a year and counting ! Cosmetic changes have been made ( Port Said's Security chiefs and Governor have bee suspended ) , but the deeply unpopular interior Minister remains in place - this won't appease those protesters , thus the fuzzy mammal has been brought out in full view. 6 more weeks of winter , death and bloodshed lie in wait for Egypt .     Syria is living a Ground Hog Day existence - the Arab League and European resolution for Assad to step down lies in limbo. Homs remain under daily attack - a virtual war zone continues day after day. Life in Homs is beyond desperate - families hunker down , scramble out ( risking life and limb to find food ) , wondering if supply routes will be cutoff and all food and water removed from their grasp. Meanwhile , back at the UN , China and Russia black the resolution pushed by the Arab League. Naturally Russia wants to cut off any foreign military adventures from jumping of - as per Libya. 

     Iran is definitely living La Vida Ground Hog Day - ongoing threats of an attack of their nuclear facilities , which go back to the era of Bush - Cheyney continue. Most recently , Defense Secretary Panetta opined that an Israel attack could happen in April , May or June -  again these ongoing threats have occurred off and on since 2007. Of course back in 2007 , there wan't an oil embargo in place nor were there  sanctions directed against  Iran's  Central Bank - while time will tell how seriously those sanctions will be ( with signs of rebellion from India , Turkey , China and Russia to carrying the water for the West. Heck , even Iraq plans to seek a waiver from the US promulgated  Iran sanctions ) , the fact that they will impact iran's economy to some degree is concerning sign of escalating tension in the Persian Gulf. A false step by any party in play here , a mistake in judgment , a false flag attack - just a spark is needed to se the region on fire. War in the Middle East , civilians killed by marching Armies - very much in tune with living La vida Ground hog Day.     So as we head into the morning and US Non Farm Payroll data (  more questionable data to give CNBC something to cheerlead over )  , keep in mind things are in the same mode , but the promise of better days is just " days away " Cheers !

The groundhog Punxsutawney Phil is held in front of a crowd.