Good Morning!
Yesterday Bitcoin followed the bearish path, however, the
latest H&S target has not yet been reached.
That target is approximately $12,500 Bitcoin, and if reached would
confirm the very large H&S that would target much lower.
Yesterday evening it was reported that South Korea issued a
warning to the crypto exchanges, that they need to clean up their act or they
may face possible closures. The media
blamed the latest descent last night on that, but of course the H&S pattern
I pointed out yesterday already knew the descent was coming.
There is yet another Bitcoin fork occurring today, it is the
B2X fork. This fork creates a new coin
that works faster with Lightning technology and has lower trading costs. I wonder… will savvy investors hold Bitcoin
today in order to receive their split, but then dump tomorrow with bearish
charts? Will be interesting to see,
Bitcoin itself has only gone higher following previous forks – but the
character of this current pullback is much different.
Prices this morning went back up to the last neckline where
they look like they will likely fail.
Counting waves, it looks like the latest movement is wave 4 and
potentially wave 5 would take us to the $12,500 target range if the bearish
perspective is still happening.
It’s difficult to see a case where prices just rip higher
from here, especially with all the major coins looking very weak, all have
troubling charts. That said, I do see a
middle of the road possibility developing where prices are trapped in between
support at the giant neckline and overhead resistance at the original
neckline. I also see what could
potentially be a shallower channel forming, depicted by the parallel thin red
lines below:
For that to happen, prices need to move higher throughout
the day today, but it’s hard to see where that energy could come from.
Here’s a close in look at the Bitcoin chart, 15 minutes:
Here’s the Ripple daily chart, note how it took off just as
Bitcoin was declining:
I’m going to be extra careful with this one. My overall plan is to stay defensive until I
can identify an ongoing bullish trend. My
experience is telling me that we need another round of heavy, scary selling to
create another capitulation bottom – if that occurs, or if a more bullish trend
emerges, then I’ll be jumping back in.
Nate