Friday, December 29, 2017

Crypto/Gold Update


 Good Morning,

We have an exciting New Year ahead, I hope everyone stays healthy, and that you are having fun learning and making money in the current and coming Crypto revolution!

Keep in mind that globally only 1.5% of us innovators are in the crypto space, and that there is a tidal wave coming.  I expect the early adopters to bring the total of global users above 10% by the end of this year, and that by 2022 the majority of the globe will be transacting in this manner.

Before today’s crypto update, let’s talk gold.  Gold is moving strongly higher in what I believe to be wave 1 of 3 up.  It is currently at resistance and we may get a short term pullback after this run, but then wave 3 of 3 higher should follow.  Wave 5s are the most powerful in commodities, so I expect that following a very powerful wave 3, that wave 5 will be even longer.  Here’s my current daily gold chart:


My minimum upside target for gold at the end of wave 3, if this count is correct, is $1,440/ounce.  That’s a minimum if wave 3 is equal to wave 1, but it could be up to 1.5 times as long.  Ultimately I think this rally could be very substantial.

To back that up, the Dollar made a very large move lower today (against the other fraudulent centrally controlled central bank debt money).  It has broken the neckline of a sizable Head & Shoulders pattern:


The target on the H&S pattern is about the 23.3 area for the Dollar, a pretty good move lower if reached, one that will create an overall lower low, and thus keep the downtrend in the dollar going.

What most mainstream analysts fail to understand is that confidence is being lost in all governments and in all centrally controlled monies.  This can be seen in the rise of the cryptocurrencies – they are a mirror to the old failing money systems where the math is laughably impossible, yet not discussed because everyone knows the impossibility they created.

So, dollars are dying, gold is dandy, and this leads us to something that puts the math on our side, the new money system/s of Cryptos…

The Token space has been staying overall much stronger than the mainstream coins over the past few days, I think that’s positive.

Yesterday’s and last night’s moves really sent two of my holdings much higher.  Those were Ripple and LEND.  Both have more than doubled in just the past few days.  Since the Bitcoin top, Ripple has moved from the 20 cent range to now $1.80.  LEND jumped 150% yesterday alone, and now sits at 20 cents.

LEND will be my first Coin of the week, I’ll highlight it after the first of the year with a report.  In a nutshell, it is an Ethereum based Token that has a lending App.  People around the world can borrow and repay crypto currency.  The token itself pays 1% interest per year.  Not much interest, but something.  I like this a ton as it moves humanity further from central banking.  The team is very impressive, and I think they did not do this project for greed, they did it to genuinely help humanity, and as such I am supporting them with a long term investment.

Ripple’s somewhat scary advance (basically straight up) comes on the release that they are working with a group of Japanese credit card companies and have formed a new consortium.  The consortium is working to deploy their technology with credit cards around Asia.  Here’s the scary chart:


In the mainstream coin arena, Bitcoin Cash finally caught a bid this morning, zoomed to $2,900 and has since pulled back.  This sudden burst of energy on high volume is a positive development and makes the chart look constructive.

Litecoin is stuck in a sideways channel with little energy.  It could still go either way from here.

Ethereum looks relatively stronger than the rest still.  Since the large bottom, it has made a series of higher lows and looks like it is working on a 5th wave higher.  If so, that would be bullish.

Bitcoin fell yesterday down to the giant H&S neckline, then bounced in what I can count as a 5 wave higher move.  That may be bullish and since yesterday’s low has put in a higher low.  Now it needs to make a higher high, but overall energy for Bitcoin is still low.  It has been drawn like a magnet back and forth across the $13,800 area.  It has not crashed beneath it, which is positive.  But when it gets above it, it runs out of energy as it reaches resistance.

What would be the right shoulder of the giant H&S is now getting too long sideways to be proportional to the left shoulder.  I am now favoring the middle possibility that I pointed out yesterday, that we will move sideways from here and base build.  Here’s my current big picture Bitcoin chart, showing both the possible bearish and bullish paths:


That’s it for now, I’m working on a large article titled: “Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency Revolution – The Most Important Change of Your Lifetime, and Why it Will Spark Humanity’s Next Renaissance!”  Look for that coming soon and on the new Cryptonomic Edge website.

Nate

Thursday, December 28, 2017

Crypto Update

Good Morning!

Yesterday Bitcoin followed the bearish path, however, the latest H&S target has not yet been reached.  That target is approximately $12,500 Bitcoin, and if reached would confirm the very large H&S that would target much lower.

Yesterday evening it was reported that South Korea issued a warning to the crypto exchanges, that they need to clean up their act or they may face possible closures.  The media blamed the latest descent last night on that, but of course the H&S pattern I pointed out yesterday already knew the descent was coming.

There is yet another Bitcoin fork occurring today, it is the B2X fork.  This fork creates a new coin that works faster with Lightning technology and has lower trading costs.  I wonder… will savvy investors hold Bitcoin today in order to receive their split, but then dump tomorrow with bearish charts?  Will be interesting to see, Bitcoin itself has only gone higher following previous forks – but the character of this current pullback is much different.

Prices this morning went back up to the last neckline where they look like they will likely fail.  Counting waves, it looks like the latest movement is wave 4 and potentially wave 5 would take us to the $12,500 target range if the bearish perspective is still happening.

It’s difficult to see a case where prices just rip higher from here, especially with all the major coins looking very weak, all have troubling charts.  That said, I do see a middle of the road possibility developing where prices are trapped in between support at the giant neckline and overhead resistance at the original neckline.  I also see what could potentially be a shallower channel forming, depicted by the parallel thin red lines below:


For that to happen, prices need to move higher throughout the day today, but it’s hard to see where that energy could come from. 

Here’s a close in look at the Bitcoin chart, 15 minutes:


My position is still very defensive.  My holdings on Coinbase are 100% cash.  Yesterday morning I sent some Bitcoin to my Bitpay app and used it to buy gold from JM Bullion.  I also spent more time pouring over best performing tokens/coins during the prior large Bitcoin descent and I found that Ripple has enjoyed a tremendous run, and I moved a large amount of my remaining portfolio there.  It is up this morning, but I’m watching it like a hawk as it’s obviously very volatile.  Like Bitcoin, Ripple is also limited in supply, however, their ultimate supply will be in the billions of coins, not millions, so I see Ripple being a stronger transactional coin, but not the store of value Bitcoin is.  Therefor I view this position as short term.

Here’s the Ripple daily chart, note how it took off just as Bitcoin was declining:


I’m going to be extra careful with this one.  My overall plan is to stay defensive until I can identify an ongoing bullish trend.  My experience is telling me that we need another round of heavy, scary selling to create another capitulation bottom – if that occurs, or if a more bullish trend emerges, then I’ll be jumping back in.


Nate

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Crypto Space Bear Market Update

It’s been quite some time since I updated this blog.  I’ve been busy to say the least, and managing my crypto investments has been taking more and more of my time as this space is changing so rapidly.

The fundamental outlook for the space is truly phenomenal.  I believe it’s the most important technology of our lifetimes – and I will spell out why I think so and where I think it’s going on my new website “Cryptonomic Edge” in the coming days.  As I spin up that site, which is currently under construction, then I’ll notify everyone here.

I have a group of friends who I have been coaching on the crypto space and have been providing daily updates to them.  In the middle of this month as Bitcoin approached $20,000 I began taking profits and noticed the following:

First came a feeling of a lack of new enthusiasm and buying pressure across the legacy coins.

Then I noticed that the usual ABC corrective declines had suddenly turned into 5 wave affairs, and that bounces were now 3 waves.  This indicates a change in the character of the market, it had turned the corner from a simple corrective decline into a bear market.

I notified my investor group that the market had changed and to expect a deeper and longer correction than those of the recent past.

As Prices made their way down wave 1, their fifth wave down bounced and made what was clearly a right shoulder of a textbook perfect Head & Shoulders pattern with the neckline at the $16,000 mark.
 
I advised the group that on a break of that neckline that prices were targeting roughly $12,000. 

On the initial break of that neckline I largely sold out my remaining positions to cash and to some other safety positions I’ll talk about later.

That target was reached, there was a bounce, and then prices bottomed out at $10,400 during what was obvious selling capitulation on high volume.  There was then a very strong bounce off that bottom that created a classic “V” bottom.

But the bounce off the bottom began to also run out of energy and was clearly making what looked like another even larger right shoulder to a giant H&S pattern.

Over my 30+ years of market investing I’ve seen this type of market two other times – once in the Nasdaq following the late 1999 top, and then again with the stock markets here in 2007.  Similarly, they began waterfall descents that stopped at support to create a series of progressively larger H&S patterns.

I currently see prices between the original $16,000 neckline, and the larger, yet to be confirmed $13,200 neckline.  If we descend below that larger neckline, then the target for that pattern is approximately $6,600!  That won’t be enjoyable ride should it occur.

Here’s my current Bitcoin chart:


Note that chart is using Bitcoin data from Bitstamp.  The price on the exchanges varies, a fact I will be explaining in subsequent articles.

Looking at that big picture chart, the Bitcoin market is currently at a crossroads, the wave count can be read two different ways.  The bearish case is presented on the chart, however, it is possible that the V bottom at $10,400 was THE bottom and that we have since moved higher completing waves 1 and 2 up, and are now in wave 2 of 3 up.  That would be bullish if so.  But frankly there are too many bearish signs right now.

I am still seeing 5 wave moves down = bearish.  The other major coins are also weak.  Litecoin is the weakest of the four on Coinbase – it failed to exceed its last high.  The strongest chart on Coinbase is Ethereum, but it, too, looks weak.  Bitcoin Cash created a large triangle and has now broke beneath the bottom boundary after it also failed to make a new high.

If I zoom in on a Coinbase Bitcoin chart, here is what I currently see on a 30 minute chart:


There currently is yet another small H&S pattern forming with a neckline at $14,500.  If that level breaks, then the Coinbase Bitcoin target will be roughly $12,500.  And if that happens, then we’ll break the Giant H&S neckline just above $13,000, thus triggering the very bearish scenario.

Alternatively, if we proceed higher from here, we need to get back above resistance at the old H&S neckline, above Coinbase Bitcoin $16,270, and we then need to hold that level.  If we do so, that would be bullish.  But again, it didn’t hold last night so for now I am favoring the bearish outcome unless we regain that mark.  Here's a chart IF the bullish scenario is occuring:


My friends and I have learned a ton recently about using the various exchanges, moving in and out of electronic wallets, etc.  I know there are a lot of people out there who can use help, and as I get this new Cryptonomic Edge website up will be available to help in the form of regular market updates, crypto newsletters, and also with one on one personal crypto tutoring.

In the crypto space only you are responsible for your money.  There’s no bank or FDIC to protect you.  And as we already knew this market is extremely volatile.  This means either close your eyes and hope, or be active in your own education and money management.

DO NOT LISTEN to the naysayers whose livelihoods depend upon the mainstream narrative.  Bitcoin is NOT going to zero, it is not a tulip, but it did get ahead of itself and is correcting.  Unlike the completely fake and controlled mainstream markets, the cyrypto markets are REAL and they are thankfully behaving that way!  Real markets correct, thus giving new money an entry point.  That point is coming, I believe, in the next few days and I am keeping my powder dry in order to ratchet my profits even further.

I will be posting my group updates here, on Economic Edge until the new site is up and running.
Hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas and are looking forward to the New Year!


Nate

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