Saturday, January 6, 2018

Choosing the Right Cryptos – Nate’s Three Simple Crypto Rules!

* Please click this link to download a free .pdf version of this article: Choosing the Right Cryptos

Your Crypto choices wield POWER!  The choices you make today will help determine all of our futures.  Your smart choices will hopefully help raise the level of human consciousness, or alternatively, your decisions will impede our progress!  So let’s make wise choices together.

Today’s coin and token market reminds me very strongly of the tech run up into late 1999.  At that time there were many startups using the new technologies of the internet.  Then came the crash!  More than 90% of those companies WENT AWAY.

That is going to happen in this space eventually!

There is a ton of great innovation occurring, but most crypto start-ups simply will not make it, they will be flashes in the pan.  So do not get too heavily invested in them, my advice is to follow Nate’s Three Simple Crypto Rules:

Rule #1 – Choose to Support Humanity.

Rule #2 – Know Your Math!

Rule #3 – Be Responsible!

 Rule #1 – Choose to Support Humanity.

Sounds easy, but even I get caught up in the excitement and lose focus on the ball.  I’d say that my investment in Ripple was one – sure, it was profitable, but I was unwittingly supporting the wrong cause!  And I did so before knowing that the founder kept so many coins that over the course of just 3 days he became one of the world’s richest persons.  We don’t have to support that, there are choices that don’t so strongly favor one person – yes, a founder should be rewarded, but only commensurate with society’s need.  I suspect that he will be cashing out soon, because as people become aware they won’t support that type of nonsense.

What makes that the wrong investment for humanity?  Ripple, and those coins/tokens like it, are working their hardest to integrate themselves into the existing banking world.  Their founders see this as the road to quick wealth – getting in bed with the banks and credit card companies.

But think about it...  What will having crypto technology working behind current credit cards change?  NOT A THING THAT MATTERS!  Credit cards will still be bank backed debt, only the technology of the transaction will change.  Who cares?

So who should we back as an alternative?  We should back companies like LEND who will be lending crypto to borrowers at low rates without the current system’s controlling ways.

We should support Cryptos like Tron (TRX) who will turn narrative biased Google, Facebook, and Apple upside down.  Tron is working to move all creative digital work, like videos, documents, and music, onto a trusted ledger system where there are no middle-men controlling what gets published and then taking a usurious cut from those who actually produce the work (see how this revolution is going to change the old power base?).

Why not support companies like OmiseGo (OMG) who are developing Plasma technology that will lead to direct peer to peer token trades, even for non-like tokens and coins?  Is that not the pursuit of Freedom?  I think it is!  And I support it by owning and holding OMG, and I’ve already been financially rewarded!  That’s how this works.

Be aware that Plasma technology used by retailers will mean that you’ll be able to use any token or coin to purchase anything you want!  You will not need a credit card or bank money!  If the retailer wants, they can then use that technology to instantly convert to whatever they choose.

There is already credit Crypto!  If you choose to go in debt to purchase things and services, then yes, you are able to borrow in Crypto!  But again, you will have a choice in who to support with your business, and there will be no middle-men!

The areas that will be changed by this revolution are way more widespread than most currently think.  It will affect every person and every industry.  PLEASE CHOOSE TO SUPPORT EACH OTHER, choose to support overall humanity, and not greedy sociopaths.  Say NO to bank and government sponsored Cryptos!

The great thing is that YOU NOW HAVE A CHOICE!  It used to be that you could only choose to use central banker debt money.  Now you can choose, so choose wisely.  You can earn, spend, and move “money” around the globe almost instantly and at little cost.

Q: Why use banker or government money at all?

A: I will personally choose not to whenever I can, and will only use their “money” very temporarily when I have to.  I will avoid owning things that are priced and sold only in dollars – as many countries around the world are already doing as they move away from the failing Dollar.

So what if some sociopath creates his own Crypto and uses it unwisely or in a damaging manner?

You have a choice, use something else!  See how freedom works?  Freedom places a check and balance on bad actors because you are free to use some other form of “money.”  Right now the government and central controllers think differently, they still think they have a monopoly on “money.”  But they have no choice in this transition, no say.  Yes, they will resist, but that resistance is already checkmated by already existing technology that they cannot stop – their controlling ways have already failed and aren’t coming back.

What happens if your government “outlaws” the use of cryptocurrencies or exchanges?
Most exchanges are going to go away regardless, due to Plasma technology.  This is the same technology that will trump governments and any “centralized” attempt to stop this revolution.  

Governments and central banks cannot stop it, nor can they control it. Most people will simply choose to ignore such dictates as they go against the freedom seeking will of humanity.  Laws that do not conform to math, nature, and human nature always fail – it is those unnatural “laws” that are truly illegal.

No, they will not shut off the internet - that will also lead to their loss of control.  Either way, they have already lost control, humanity wins as power and control rightly returns to the people.

Choosing the right Cryptos should increase freedom and thus true security will follow.  Choosing the right Cryptos will lift our consciousness and will help bring reality forward.  Please know WHO you are supporting, and choose wisely!  By choosing to support those who support freedom and decentralization, you will be choosing to support humanity!

Rule #2 – Know Your Math!


It’s simple.  Since you now have a choice, do you choose to support a coin or token that has endless supply, or one that is strictly limited in supply?

I hope the answer is obvious.  Always know about the supply and the timing of the issuance of new coins and tokens – also know how many the founders are holding.  If you don’t know, don’t own them, you have a choice!

For example – if you choose to put your earned dollars into a crypto, would you rather have one that is strictly limited to 21 Million coins, or one limited to 10 Billion?  Again, that one should be easy to answer.

At this time, there will only ever be just one Bitcoin for every 500 people on the planet!  That scarcity puts the math on your side.  As debt based “monies” around the globe are created in unlimited quantity, they flow into Bitcoin, thus pushing the value of Bitcoin higher and higher.  Its price is not the bubble – it is simply a mirror to the true bubble that is the Dollar.  Unlike tulips, and even unlike gold, its math is strictly limited, so why not put the math on your side?

Bitcoin is a store of value coin, not a transactional coin, those who complain about this simply aren’t aware that they now have a choice in money features.

Q: How about coins that are not limited in supply, like Ethereum, how can they be going up in value?

A: Transactional coins do have value!  If they are in high demand, like ETH, then value rises.  But can they ever be as valuable as say Bitcoin?  I think not, so be careful.  ETH may be the backbone of new tokens today, but will it be in the future?  I bet not, I’ll bet the technology changes.

Do not invest in coins or tokens that are not “mined” into existence over time.  Any ICO that floods the market with massive upfront quantity should be avoided holding for any length of time.
When making a choice of Cryptos, please choose to put the math on your side.  Only touch momentarily those that do not.

Rule #3 – Be Responsible!

Some Cryptos will be a store of value, while others will be primarily transactional.  You now have a choice and that is wonderful!  But with that freedom comes responsibility to learn it, and to wield it wisely, otherwise we all could lose the freedom humanity deserves.

Going forward, you will be 100% in charge and responsible for your own money actions!  Isn’t that appropriate?  It is, it is why all centralized concepts, like socialism, and all forms of centralized money eventually fail.  They go against human nature. Responsible and productive people will not tolerate forcefully donating their productive efforts to those who are not!  If someone not working earns as much as someone who is working, then those who would work won’t!  And that lack of motivation kills the system, as it has done over and over throughout history.

So, we must all educate ourselves and pay attention as changes are occurring every single day in this space.  Yes, we can all be taken advantage of!  And we will be unless we work hard to become aware.

Know what safe storage is and what it is not.  Keep as much off of exchanges as possible.  Know that when you are trading on an exchange, you are not creating an entry in any coin’s ledger, you are in fact not trading any actual coins or tokens at all! The exchange may or may not have an appropriate number of coins backing the trades that occur on their site!

Take possession of actual coins and tokens when you can, and store them as safely as you can – this is an entire lesson in and of itself, one that everybody must learn (this is what the Mt. Gox debacle was all about – the exchange did not have enough actual tokens to cash out those with deposits).

TRIPLE CHECK whenever you are sending Crypto anyplace or to anyone.  You can lose it if you’re not careful – the most common way is to send it to a non-compatible wallet that doesn’t recognize what you just did.

Choose low cost transfers and trades when possible.  Transaction costs, even though they are substantially less, can still eat away your money over many transactions.

A Word to the Doubters of the Crypto Revolution:

I’ll wrap this up with one important piece of knowledge for the doubters of this technology…

When you earn Crypto directly, or if you convert some other money into Crypto, and if the supply of that Crypto is truly fixed, then when you take possession of that coin or token, you are taking it from someone else – even if it was a private person or group of people who created it (and even if the source code came from the CIA, LOL).

Think about that, and you will see the revolution.  Because that’s not how unlimited supply debt money works at all.  With the current mainstream system, all money is borrowed into existence becoming a debt to the borrower and same with our national debt which becomes a burden on us all.  When you or our nation gets Dollars, they actually do not originate from someone else, they are created in endless supply by PRIVATE INDIVIDUALS, AKA “central bankers.”  They simply turn on their computers and print more.  They can then use that money to buy unnatural laws that favor them, and subvert the checks and balances built into our Constitution (which needed better checks and balances, but that need will be replaced by this technology).

Let’s use Bitcoin as an example… for you to hold one, it must come from someone else.  The only way they can replace it is to produce something or do something to earn it back.  They can’t turn on their computer and print more (yes, miners somewhat do this, but it isn’t free or easy and must be done for the system to work).  So, every Bitcoin you own - that you earned through your productive life energy - takes life force, power, and control from someone else!

And isn’t that the way it should work?  This is THE KEY DIFFERENCE and why this revolution returns the power into the hands of the people.

*Note: Please visit my new Cryptonomicedge.com site!

Crypto Update/ Coinbase Concerns & Conundrums


Good Morning!

*Please take the time to read about exchanges below!

Yesterday afternoon Bitcoin rose as expected right to the top of the channel I’ve been depicting.  It overthrew the top slightly, but then began selling in what I believe is wave 2.  Wave 2 is gathering downward momentum, and so far is following the path I predicted almost perfectly. 

Wave 2 should take approximately 3 days to finish – that is if its length of time is half the length of wave 1 up.  If its length equals wave 1, then it could take up to six days.  But down strokes usually move much faster than upstrokes, so I’m favoring a faster completion for wave 2.

Here’s the 2 hour chart for Bitcoin showing the expected path:


Note that the peak of wave 1 finished well above the top of wave B.  This means that we clearly have both a higher high, and a higher low.  That is confirmation that a new uptrend has begun.  Also confirmation of a new bull BTC market is the clear 5 waves up that wave 1 and each of its sub-waves produced.

So, I see a BTC correction continuing, then a powerful wave 3 up that will challenge the old highs and I think it will do so sometime prior to the end of the month.

During this pullback in BTC, I expect the prior rotation to regather steam – this means XRP, XLM, LEND, and many others will enjoy a nice bounce.  This will be short lived, though, so be careful!

Also, ETH is likely to get above, then stay above the $1,000 mark.  Both Litecoin (LTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCC or BCH) are now following the upstroke that BTC took yesterday.  Be careful with these too, as they simply lag BTC.  They will also fall back as the descent in BTC picks up steam.

Actually, the dollar is a good place to be if you can be to ride out BTC wave 2.  That’s difficult I know as was reinforced yesterday with my Coinbase experience.

COINBASE CONCERNS & CONUNDRUMS

It is difficult to get dollars in and out of the Cryptos – for now.  We all need to remember that exchanges in this space are relatively new and mostly not well regulated.  I’m okay with little to no regulation, and think that’s the way it should be.  But that means that we all need to be educated and aware of the risks they pose.

Mt. Gox was an early Crypto exchange that basically had a “run on the bank” and could not produce the coins to cash out that clients thought they had.  This is called fractional banking, it is exactly what the Jews and Chinese invented thousands of years ago.  Blacksmiths had safes.  They learned that they could store other people’s gold and issue a “gold receipt.”  They then figured that the odds of all of the people claiming their gold at the same time was rare, so they began STEALING the gold, keeping only enough to satisfy what they believed would suffice to keep their scheme going.

That scheme turned into the fractional banking system we have today – and history is littered with bank runs where this Ponzi collapsed. 

In come Cryptos and immoral people who start dishonest exchanges figure they can do the same.  That was Mt. Gox.  But now who’s to say the same thing isn’t happening with the other exchanges?

Oh, I know it is!  I can guarantee you that Coinbase, Binance, and most exchanges do not possess all the coins needed to cash out all accounts!  Should you be concerned?  YES.

Yesterday I tried to sell what little BTC I still have with Coinbase.  I waited perfectly until wave 1 hit the top of the channel, then I went to sell to my cash wallet, only to find that all buys and sells were suspended!  Oh boy was I mad!! 

They did resume trading later, but by then the descent had already begun and I missed exiting at the top – this literally costs me money, and is just the latest of many frustrations with Coinbase.  So my next course of action was to send the remaining BTC I had in that account to my Trezor – in order to get it off their exchange.  Also, I now feel that I have too much money with Binance, so I sent BTC from there to my Trezor as well.

That was yesterday afternoon.  This morning I still have not received my BTC from Coinbase.  On my Coinbase account it says pending, but they have NOT sent it as there is no link to see that the miners have started to process the transaction! 

This from Coinbase:

Transaction Delays

Identified - Due to high transaction volumes, we are currently working through a backlog of outgoing BTC and ETH transactions. Customers sending these assets from Coinbase to an external address may experience a delay before the transaction appears on the blockchain. Deposits, buys, and sells are unaffected by this incident.

Customers should anticipate the following wait times:
- BTC: up to 72 hours
- ETH: up to 5 hours (reduced from 12–36 hours)

Our team is working to add resources and optimize our system so that we can process transactions more quickly. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
Jan 4, 13:07 PST

Hmmm… “Transaction volumes” is the reason for delaying my access to my money for up to 3 days?!  HIGHLY UNLIKELY, as in I don’t believe that statement.  I believe the real reason to be liquidity – not enough new money coming in to handle all of the withdrawals.

So BEWARE, this seems to me to be worse than just a backlog, I believe they have destroyed people’s confidence enough that there may be a run on the exchange.  Hopefully I’ll get my BTC from them.  I also sold all but 1 ETH I had with them and am sending the cash to my savings account until I see more stability from them.

The question then is, should you do the same and remove most of your holdings from Coinbase?  I do think it would be prudent to limit your exposure!  If a run is occurring, you want to sneak out the door before they completely lock it shut. 

If there is ever a run at any of the exchanges, you could get trapped.  This is why you should mostly have possession of actual coins and they should be located in a wallet that you possess.  I would only keep enough money on any exchange to cover any trades or cash in and out that you plan to do near term.

Yes, Coinbase has been flooded with millions of new accounts, and that is only gathering steam.  As new money comes in, exchanges' main problem is tooling up to handle the volume.  But when the tide goes out, even if it’s just temporarily, then their biggest concern immediately becomes staying liquid enough to handle withdrawals.

If enough people are as frustrated with Coinbase as I am, then they may have millions of accounts, but very few assets.  There is no transparency into these exchanges, so extreme caution is advised.
The cure for all of this is direct peer to peer trading using Plasma technology.  That is why I support OMG and other companies working on bringing this to the masses.  But it is taking a little time to get to the point we can all use it, but be patient, it is here and will come on strong I think this year.

Going more peer to peer is more the model of Bittrex, Bitshares, and many others.  Bitshares is true peer to peer, but they have limited coins for trading.  Bittrex, on the other hand, takes in BTC, then converts for trading to other coins, so it is not truly peer to peer – I would place their model in between, but their user interface is clumsy and their site is slow.

Binance is by far the best site I’ve experienced for trading.  There was no delay yesterday at all sending BTC to my Trezor – that transaction was complete in just 15 minutes.  So for right now I trust them the most, even though they are in Hong Kong.  And that location also poses a risk as they reside in a communist controlled country that is unfavorable to Bitcoin.  So I am also limiting my exposure here.

Until Plasma is in widespread use, I will be storing the bulk of my Crypto wealth on my personal electronic wallet.  I will do my trading on Binance as Coinbase is not built for trading, and I have lost confidence in their business.

The great thing about Cryptos, though, is that we all have a choice!  But once again, this proves that you must pay attention and don’t be afraid to keep your Cryptos under YOUR CONTROL, not someone else’s!

Nate


*Note: Please visit my new Cryptonomicedge.com site!

Friday, January 5, 2018

This is What Dollar Failure Looks Like/ Crypto Madness!

In the old days I would have railed about how poor the jobs report that came out this morning is.  I would dissect it, and talk about the fake jobs “created” by the BLS and about the Labor Participation rate that shows nearly one third of adults who can work are not working, yet are not counted among the unemployed!  I would also point out the history of data changes and how those changes were meant to deceive. 

That’s now all water under a bridge in disrepair… that bridge will soon be washed away by a crypto tidal wave.

The economic statistics are so broken and so inaccurate that to call them fake is actually flattery!  The reality is that there is a power and control conspiracy, and that the dissemination of false statistical data, and the fake narrative that fools people into believing the statistics are real, are criminal in scope.  At the very least they are amoral.
   
But all that is so one or two decades ago!  Today I simply laugh at the rot, it is a perverse joke that a few of us get and understand, but the rest will get soon enough - the hard way.  The crypto revolution is going to unmask the fake narratives by changing out those who back them financially.  Same goes for the very sick deep state – they will be dismantled soon enough, washed away as power and control shifts into the hands of the people.  Those who finance them by printing worthless dollars will no longer have the power.

But we must make the right choices, and we are!

When the proper rule of law is reestablished, economic data that is real will be a top priority.  Guess what?  Trusted ledgers will make that happen!  Sociopaths will not be able to corrupt and manipulate the data in the future, we will be able to KNOW what is real and what is not – no narrative will be needed, fake or otherwise.

Today the jobs report missed badly, yet the stock market is soaring!  Again!  A one-way melt up that can’t seem to ever go down.  But that’s because it, like most government statistics, is measured in Dollars.  Get it?  Things measured in dollars can’t go down when the entire world is creating trillions and trillions of them.  This broken money system is in failure mode right now – this is what failure looks like!

News stopped mattering to the markets long ago.  In fact, up became down, and wrong became right.  Bad news became good news!  Why?  Because the central controllers have the market’s back!  And that is moral hazard writ large.

I’ll state this one again – President Trump is going to regret tying his success to the “success” of the stock market.  In fact, all mainstream Americans will regret it!  Why?  Because the stock market has been made irrelevant!  I already don’t care, and I know that it is dying, but most don’t know it yet.

The proper function of the stock market is to provide capital a means to finance legitimate business – businesses that produce and sell real productive things and services.  Today, the majority of the stock market funds “financialization.”  It has become everything… it boils down to the over production of money, and thus the destruction of its value.  It is happening because our money system was built on an improper foundation, that being the "Federal Reserve" Act of 1913.  Cryptos are the undoing of that illegal Act, it will go away in the near future.

Today a fledgling company wishing to do an IPO will give up to half the IPO proceeds to Wall Street and to attorneys.  That is ending with the advent of the ICO (Initial Coin Offering).  And no, governments cannot stop them, and attempts to regulate them will fail – more on that in my crypto white paper.

So I have a news flash for the talking heads on CNBC – your jobs are going to go away!  New news companies will center discussions on the real businesses being created around this space.  The old regime of businesses are about to go under, the government is going to shrink and change dramatically, and if we’re lucky, it will be a quiet revolution.  But I think the more likely outcome is an all-out conflict that in the end will wash away those WHO are currently behind the sociopathic madness that hides behind the very FAKE mask of “globalism” and “central” “Federal” banking.

In the future, we won’t NEED or WANT banks as we now know them.  Our actions and our choices today will ensure that they don’t rule the new system.  PLEASE CHOOSE YOUR CRYPTO INVESTMENT WITH THIS IN MIND.

CRYPTO UPDATE:

Bitcoin zoomed overnight exactly following the bullish labeling on my big picture chart.  I believe that run to more than $16,000 was wave 5 of 1 up, and it may have one more push higher, wave 5 of 5 of 1.  Once that wave finishes, then we can expect a scary and precipitous drop in Bitcoin again!
 
Be ready, that will be wave 2 down.  Wave 2’s are meant to scare you and to fool you.  You will question if the bear market has really ended or not (it has).  

If you are day trading, you will swap out positions over and over and will lose money!  This is because most people are still fearful of the last 50% plunge.  The majority of weak hands will not hold through wave 2, they will capitulate at exactly the time wave 3 up strikes.  Strong hands will hold, and really smart ones will be buying this next dip with both fists!

By the end of wave 3 up, those who were claiming that Bitcoin is going to zero will once again have egg on their face.  The CNBC news anchors will marvel, but they will not recognize the revolution that is ending their employment.  This revolution is THE MOST IMPORTANT technology, investment opportunity, and social order change of all our lifetimes.

Here’s my Big Picture Bitcoin chart.  I believe that we’re still on track to reach the $20k area by the end of the month:




Nate

Thursday, January 4, 2018

The Magnetic Line


One trend is now very clear.  As the world spins, money from the U.S. flows into Bitcoin, and as we go home for dinner and sleep the Asians are waking up to cast their money back at the rotation away from Bitcoin and into “the smalls.”  I think this crypto rotation may be ending soon, however, as Bitcoin’s mathematical dominance will once again prevail as the place to be for storage of value due to its very limited supply.

Another clearly established trend, the most powerful of all, is the production and resultant destruction of the Dollar.  Currently rising interest rates and the new tax overhaul that favors large corporations, is sucking huge sums of dollars back into the United States.  This repatriation of dollars is simply vacuuming them up to then be distributed to all the “asset” bubbles where eventually they will be destroyed. 

Stocks:  The most overvalued in history – period.  Mathematically impossible.  False accounting, fake statistics, hyper-controlled unidirectional melt-up on the back of the flood of money.  This current flood began as a result of QE and the last crisis.  The last crisis was like the water running away from the beach, now we’re getting the resultant tsunami of dollars returning to the beach.  The flood is epic in proportions, but one day soon that water will again recede.  The crest of the wave may be higher still as we are creating an epic melt up fueled by trillions of dollars that are worth less and less.  If I were Trump, I certainly would not be taking ownership of that bubble, it will be his Achilles Heel.

Bonds:  Mathematically super impossible!  Historic bubble that must be propped up.  This propping up is the end for the value of the dollar.  It’s such a joke, there is no way to ever repay; yet the numbers must grow or the economy implodes.  Higher rates will be temporary, once the dollars overseas are fully repatriated, the flow of water will reverse again.

Gold: Gold will receive a very large quantity of worth less dollars.  Gold is just beginning wave 3 higher, it is a screaming buy at this time, a benefactor of the true bubble that is the dollar.

Dollar:  The one true bubble.  It is the giver to the “everything bubble.”  Dollars that don’t go into gold, silver, Bitcoin or altcoins will eventually be destroyed.  Half or more of the dollars in real estate will likewise again be destroyed or made to be simply worthless.  You will have lots of dollars, but it will take many of them just to buy a cup of Joe.

The Dollar is the root problem, it is where the rule of law first broke down.  It started with the illegal and Unconstitutional Federal Reserve Act in 1913.  Human nature will simply not allow a very tiny group of private individuals to take all their productive efforts, have all the wealth, and be able to control everyone on the planet.  

The change for this is in progress, your promotion of cryptos and decentralization fuels this most important change for humanity and will raise everyone’s consciousness, everyone’s perception of reality will get clearer as the elite’s continuous chain of false narratives get washed away.  Gee, did you know that defectors from North Korea had anthrax antibodies in their system?  LOL, didn’t fool me the first time, the second time, and certainly not this time.  The clown narratives are soon going to be ending – but those who hold the power and control will only go down kicking and screaming – that’s how change happens, one step back.  But then the big step forward for humanity is already in progress and cannot be stopped.

CRYPTOS:  Bitcoin keeps attempting to run higher, but then runs into resistance just as the Asians get up and the Americans go to bed.  I do think this trend will continue, it is a part of the shift of power from the US to Asia.  Dollars flow into Bitcoin from the US, and then we, as in those who use exchanges like Binance, take those US origin dollars, send them to Hong Kong, and then buy alt coins with them.  This is becoming a HUGE flow of money, it is people who hold dollars fleeing to a place where their dollars are treated fairly, freely, a place where they have options and the markets are REAL, not controlled.

Bitcoin tried to break higher yesterday evening, but failed and pulled back early this morning to end what I think was wave 4.  I believe wave 5 of 1 is in progress now, but may not make more progress until tomorrow at this point.  The heavy MAGNETIC uptrend line I’ve been showing is attracting Bitcoin prices back to it – if they get above, they fall.  If below, they rise.  I believe this will continue for a while, and again I show my bitcoin chart below annotated with my best guess as to wave mapping:


Overall I expect that by the end of this month Bitcoin will have followed that line in a zig-zag manner to reach and be equal to the old primary high just at $20k.

But here’s what’s amazing and will tie this whole dollar bubble, flow of money into cryptos together.  We all know there are now a ton of different cryptos to choose from.  Are they diluting Bitcoin’s value?  You bet!  But does that mean the rise in Bitcoin’s price will be less steep?  Don’t think so!  Remember, Bitcoin is the most limited in supply, it will be the store of value!  But here’s how its role as a percentage of the market has changed, clearly evident by the fall in percent share of the market in market cap:

Market cap

In 2013 Bitcoin was 93% of the market.  Today it is “only” 35%!

But that 35% is of a much bigger pie!  Below is the chart showing the unstoppable flow of money into cryptos:


Note how total crypto market cap has EXPLODED higher, now totaling $768 Billion!

But guess what?  That was only the innovator wave.  The early adopter wave is now coming on in full force, and I think will rise this number nearly tenfold this year alone.  That means that the Market cap of all cryptos will very soon be measured in the trillions (of worth less and less dollars).

See how that works?  The central banks around the world print unlimited supplies of fake and worthless debt money, that money then flows into the market cap of the new monies.  As this occurs, the central banks will lose more and more of their power and control, appropriately so! 

So what that market cap chart really shows, is how much power and control has shifted to the people.  Make sure you own them before the central banks do!

No they cannot print money to just buy them all up!  I’ll explain why not in what was my upcoming article, but is now looking more like a white paper!

Nate

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Bitcoin Business

Yesterday Bitcoin broke higher out of a descending trendline as I showed in yesterday’s update.  From there it consolidated, then began to move higher last night until the Chinese announced they are going to heavily regulate Bitcoin miners.  Ostensibly their cover is that the miners are using too much electricity! 

No, Bitcoin mining is probably saving electricity over the industries it replaces.  The Chinese simply are fearful of freedom, thus they seek security with their socialist controlling centralized ways.  Guess what?  Bitcoin doesn’t need any Chinese miners, it will continue on regardless of what they do or say.  Eventually they will be forced to capitulate to the world’s rising consciousness, but all the sociopathic controllers will only do so kicking and screaming as “their” world decentralizes away from them.

But they did manage to interrupt the new uptrend, but only temporarily as the West is in the midst of a decentralization, freedom seeking quest to change the last damaging centralization/globalization wave.  Cryptocurrencies are the expression of freedom, humanity is raising its consciousness in what so far is a quiet revolution.  Money represents people’s life energy – most are on the losing end of Dollar math, their life’s work stolen incrementally as they earn, borrow, spend, and especially when they just hold dollars.

Speaking of dollars, despite the rest of the world being a despot of failing currencies backed by impossible math, our Dollar compared to the R.O.W. “basket” may be bouncing today, but the monthly dollar chart says to me it is likely going much lower:


A break of that Dollar H&S would send the index down to the 21 region.  Of course the real measurement of the Dollar is against its mirror – Bitcoin.  Gold is a semi-mirror, it too, is going to rally strongly, just not on the scale of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s price has been following a new uptrend line since it bottomed.  This is the heavy right upsloping arrow on the chart below.  Note how that line with the former downtrend line formed an X?  If prices gravitate to that new uptrend line on the way out, then prices will be at or near the prior $20k high by about the end of this month.

I updated the chart to reflect a possible bullish wave count that would take us there (you could also count the descent to the $10,400 low as the entire ABC, then wave 1 & 2 finished, we’d be in 3 – but I favor the count shown on the chart).  Of course one can also still count the descent into the $10,400 low as A, and that we’re headed to a B wave top, only to descend to new lows.  I’ll feel better once we get over the old $16,500 high.  That is the next large area of overhead resistance:


My take is that the character of the market just changed again.  I do believe the Bear market has most likely ended – that’s what the heavy volume break of the downtrend line is probably saying, that is unless the B wave is really, really large.  Also, I am counting 5 waves higher again, so I’m thinking we’ve exited the bear, and are now into a new bull (but middle waves can fool, so I’m careful until it proves it).

I’ve made outperforming BTC overall as my goal.  During the big descent I went into many of the Alt-Coins and found enough winners to increase the number of BTC I hold.  Now my strategy is to not give them up as BTC rises.  Thus I am now overweight BTC, and have gone only into the very best performing options in the Alt-Coin space.  Lately for me that has been Ripple (XRP), Stellar Lumens (XLM), and Tron (TRX) among others.  I think all those plays are getting long in the tooth for this wave, I’m seeing upside targets nearing and am beginning to see negative divergences on the charts.  Yesterday when BTC broke the uptrend, most of the tokens sank hard relative to BTC.  The goal is not to lose relative to BTC, but to gain.  Thus when it is heading up, overweight BTC, when correcting, then overweight the smaller, but high performing stuff.

If my wave count on the chart above is correct, then we’ll be able to see and thus to position ourselves in advance of the next move.

Nate

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Crypto New Years!

Happy Crypto-Volatile New Year!

The Alt-Coins have been greatly outperforming Bitcoin during its bear market, but suddenly the tides have turned as the pros with the big money stepped back in to break Bitcoin back above its major trend line.  This sent all the Alt-Coins lower.

The rotation into Ethereum and other coins appears to have ended, and switched directions back to Bitcoin for now.  This is a very bullish breakout, here’s my Bitcoin chart, you can see the major downtrend line is definitively broken to the upside:


This likely blows up the bearish case, but now it needs to get over $16,500 to make a new high and confirm the new uptrend.  Bitcoin definitely leads, so I now expect it to run as people chase returns; then Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, and the rest will follow.

Enjoy the ride, 2018 is going to be very volatile.  1.5% of the world’s population now owns crypto, that is going above 10% by the end of the year.  There is a TIDAL WAVE of new money to come.  Regardless of short term direction, I think $40,000 Bitcoin in the first half, $100k is possible by year’s end! 

Today’s move is a great example of why Bitcoin dominates.  Because you need to own it to trade for nearly everything else, once it starts up, then everyone sells in order to get better relative performance.  Thus I think “dilution” is true, but only in the sense that the entire space is growing by leaps and bounds.  Proof of that is that despite the recent Bitcoin bear market, the overall market cap of all the cryptos has been making new all-time highs.  

Again, Bitcoin is NOT THE BUBBLE, the dollar is.

Nate

PS - Proof of Big Boy involvement?  Goldman Sachs forecast for end of 2017 Bitcoin price was $14,000.  Ended midnight December 31, 2017 at $13,878!  Only $122 off.  Someone made money on that.  Next day, downtrend broken.  While I lament those participants, I also know that we all need to suck their money in - their bubble money is what will send the cryptos higher while diminishing their power and control in the process.  How?  Stay tuned, I'll explain.

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