Thursday, January 11, 2018

Crypto Update – Symmetry Lost, New Symmetry Found… Luke, Did I just feel a Ripple in the Force?

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UPDATE:  After breaking the wave 2 downtrend line and then perfectly entering the “fork” I’ve been showing, upwards momentum was beginning to gather steam, and then…

South Korea, whose Justice Department previously announced they were seeking new legislation to ban Crypto exchanges, combined forces with their Tax officials to raid a couple of the largest exchanges gathering evidence of tax fraud.

This, by the way, is straight out of the Controlling Sociopath’s Play Book – make an example out of a couple of “tax cheats” in order to scare everyone in line.  Definitely the controller’s stick approach.  I have a lot to say on taxes – like that a true sovereign nation doesn’t need them and in fact shouldn’t have them at all!  I know that sounds radical to everyone who practices coloring within the lines, but there’s a lot of history and reason as to how this is an inappropriate rule-of-law.  I’ll go over that more in future writings.

This morning the South Korean Ministry of Finance came out and said, “We do not share the same views as the Ministry of Justice on a potential Cryptocurrency exchange ban.”

Personally, I think that it won’t matter in the end.  Cryptocurrencies cannot be stopped.  But they can be slowed by not allowing people to put their worth less and less debt money into them.  While no real action occurred, I do think it affected the psychology of the market.  It put a damper on it, and for those who are watching it, like me, you could sense the energy drain.

Yesterday that caused a mini-crash as prices tumbled out of the channel and back down to what was a wave 2 downtrend line.

That descent broke the symmetry we’ve been following, and also destroyed my count by making a new lower low, which came after making a new higher high.  That’s unusual, to say the least.

And something else changed – what had been a relatively easy wave count, is now suddenly very difficult.  It is hard to clearly count either the up moves or the down moves.  Also, the up moves all of a sudden lacked impulse – something that should not be happening if we were, in fact, in a wave 3 up.  The other clue here is that the momentum and energy seems to be shifting every few days – back and forth.

When that happens it usually means that the market has entered a sideways pattern.  So I cleared my brain, and the chart of all my analysis and looked at it with fresh eyes now that a strange new low entered the picture.

What I found is actually a nice new symmetry – perhaps that’s what was happening all along, or perhaps the pattern morphed – both can happen.  In either event, what I now see is a very clear, and very large, symmetrical triangle – Please view the chart below and read the notes I added regarding this formation:

This is actually a very well formed triangle.  They are coiled springs, storing energy for the next wave.  The direction into a triangle is almost always the direction out of the triangle, so it should break upwards.  However, if it breaks below the bottom boundary shown on that chart, which as I type is not very far down, then I am going to exit my long BTC positions immediately.  If it regains that line, then I will reenter.  Should that bottom boundary break, it would be very bearish, triggering potential big Head & Shoulders patterns that are quite a bit lower than where we are now.

But if prices rise back up to touch the top of the triangle as shown, then I will be pretty comfortable in the symmetry of that triangle.  Right now, there is a distinct lack of upside energy – and that lack of energy is strongest while the Asian markets are open (so I am weary about tonight).

This pattern, if correct, will play out more slowly than the previous pattern.  It will have to break one way or the other sometime the week beginning January 22nd, so it could push back recovering to old highs until sometime in February.

I do think there are big players who hold Bitcoin knowing its potential value – they will not let go.  And that, hopefully, will keep a floor on the market as the weak hands exit.  I’m neither weak nor strong – I use analytics to determine potential direction.  Right now the fundamentals say that BTC is going to win the battle, it’s a math thing.  Technical Analysis is saying a sideways formation is occurring.  Psychology is a little bit negative right now, so sideways we go until proven otherwise.

A Ripple in the Force?

Yes, I believe so!  This morning it was announced that Central Banker favorite, Ripple, has made an agreement with MoneyGram through a new service called xRapid.  They site Ripple’s fast speed and low fees as a reason for partnering with them.

But again I’ll ask – what does that do for the everyday person?  The consumer?  I think very little.
But what does it do for them?  It gives the banks another currency that they can use to draw money away from Bitcoin and the other truly beneficial Cryptos with.  It also simply gives them another money factory where they can crank out an endless supply of tiny, little, fast, Ripples!  That makes them wealthy, while in the end will make those who hold Ripples poor – sound familiar? 

My advice, run from Ripple like the plague – it is NOT a store of value coin, and it will not benefit humanity.  Thus look for it everywhere the current seated power plays… 

Also, while Ripple was a good play from ten cents to three dollars, it will never be a big dollar coin.  In fact, if the price of Ripple gets too high, look for the central controllers to devalue it by making more.  They will do this because they want a low price, fast transactional Crypto for the masses. 

Massively avoid it if you can. 

A good alternative in the same space as Ripple?  Try Stellar Lumens for an investment in humanity – they are the anti-bank transactional counter to Ripple – it has room to grow in price, it is open source – not centrally controlled, and it is community owned, not sociopathic owned – meaning that the incentive is to grow in value, not in quantity.

Did you feel that Ripple in the Force?  Be a part of the quiet revolution and shun bank anything… humanity will be rewarded for your efforts!