Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Litecoin Cash – Scam or Legit??

For those who aren’t yet aware, there is a Litecoin fork (first ever) that’s supposed to occur on the 18th or 19th of this month, just a few days away.

Supposedly you can receive 10 Litecoin Cash (LCC) for each LTC you possess at the time of the fork.  This has caused much speculation and has people scrambling to buy LTC prior to the fork.

On the LTC chart, you can see that it just had a major breakout higher and has shot back above $200/coin:

As you can see on that chart, the downtrend has clearly been broken to the upside, it is a very bullish chart.

Note how similarly to BTC, LTC touched the 200 day moving average and has bounced producing a new buy signal on the daily MACD.

But is LCC a scam or is it legit?

According to Litecoin Founder, Charlie Lee, it is a SCAM.  Here are his recent tweets on the subject:

Clearly, Charlie believes it to be a scam.  In fact, he like many others, believe people doing these forks and using the Litecoin or Bitcoin names are inherently weak for trying to piggyback on the name and not doing their own coding and marketing.  I agree with this philosophically.

Most forks piggyback not only on the name, but they use the open source Bitcoin code – in fact that’s exactly what Charlie Lee did, he copied the BTC code, made a few changes, changed the name, and has made millions off it.  Okay, that’s the way open source is, and the BTC source code is far and away the most proven and secure.

Now, when I go to the LCC official website, I find that they list many benefits, including the fact that old BTC mining software will be able to mine LCC.

Their website is respectful and seems to be looking after people’s interest with their “safe fork” discussion.  However, there is no whitepaper and the team is very young and thin with only 4 members.

From the LLC website, here is an LCC comparison table:

Note that Charlie Lee says not to give them your LTC keys in order to claim your LCASH.  I would agree, at least at a minimum I would wait to see if in fact people are successfully claiming them, and that an LCASH wallet actually materializes.

Regarding this, the LCC team seems to agree by stating a truism, “Firstly, NEVER paste private keys that hold any currency into ANY website or wallet in order to claim forked coins (including ours). Practice responsible forking: 1. Wait for the fork; 2. Move your Litecoin to a new address; 3. Use the private key for the "old" address to claim your Litecoin Cash.”

One thing is for certain, with Charlie Lee at Coinbase, don’t expect Coinbase to distribute LCC to your account automatically!  Thus if you wish to claim your LCC, you must ensure that you have your LTC in your possession, inside your own LTC wallet off any exchange (I use Trezor).  Then move the LTC to another wallet or an exchange, then use the old and now empty wallet keys to claim your LCC.

So, I do think there is a high probability that this is a scam, at a minimum it is a fast and loose copy/modification of the LTC/BTC source code.  That said, I do have my LTC off exchange and will be able to claim my LCC once proven.  I will wait and watch before attempting to claim my LCC tokens.  If I am successful, I will immediately sell them since there is no whitepaper, and since the “team” looks to be profiting with minimal effort on their part.  Then I’ll use the proceeds of that sale to purchase LTC.



Tuesday, February 13, 2018

The Lightning Network

Boy am I a fan!  My hope is that this year Segregated Witness and the Lightning Network will radically change the speed and cost of transacting with Bitcoin. 

But wait, there’s more… Lightning also can accommodate cross-block transactions.  This is HUGE, a game changer, because it means that we’ll be able to trade one another different coins directly with NO MIDDLEMEN.  This, and other technologies like Atomic trading and Plasma, mean that days are numbered for exchanges (except to get dollars if required, they are certainly not desired). 

Not only that, but as Andreas Antonopoulos points out in the video below, the Onion Routing will ensure true PRIVACY.  This is also a game changer – it means that we can truly claim our personal monetary and fiscal sovereignty by righting a huge wrong that has been held over humanity’s heads by central bankers.  Namely that they can see everything you do, but you can see nothing they do.  This turns that inside out, in a proper rule of law manner.  Banking secrecy by private individuals illegally given the right to produce unlimited quantities of money is ENDING, and I say “YAY!”  

This fact alone will bring BILLIONS of people worldwide into this new system of “banking.”
Right now lighting is running in a test mode with test nodes.  A node is simply the entire ledger that resides on your computer so that as transactions occur the ledger that exists on your computer can be compared and verified by other ledgers on other computers to verify transactions.  The more nodes, the more robust, and the more decentralized the network is.

Once verified, hopefully later this year, Lightning will release a final version of their node software that likely will include incentives for people running a full Lightning node.  I currently run a full Bitcoin node on my computer and will also run a Lightning node when it is released.  I’ll write more about running your own node later, it’s certainly easy to do and actually doesn’t require any expertise and very little energy and bandwidth – I don’t even notice my computer is running it.

The following video describes roughly how the Lightning Network works:

This video is an interview with Lightning CEO Elizabeth Stark:

And this video is with Andreas Antonopoulos who answers questions about the lightning network:

Monday, February 12, 2018

Video:  More Trace Mayer – BTC Lightning Adoption and Claiming Your Personal Monetary Sovereignty

This is another very interesting interview with Trace Mayer.  Well worth the time, he covers the Lightning Network on top of Bitcoin and how it will speed transactions and lower costs.  He also covers the possibility of Atomic trading, but most importantly discusses how to claim your personal sovereignty now that the monopoly on money has been broken!

Bitcoin Market Update – Breakout with Historic Buy Signals!

Nate Update: 

I have returned from two weeks of very fun off-road motorcycle riding in Southern Utah.  That’s the good news. 

The bad news is that I had a 30+ mph encounter with a boulder and the boulder won – launching me into a head/back landing that resulted in 3 fractured ribs and 3 compression fractures in my vertebrae! 

Painful for sure, but thankfully I will heal - hopefully with little or no lasting damage.  Soft tissues are already better, but bones take longer to heal. In the meantime, my energy level is returning already, but not quite what it was, so expect a slow ramp back up into things.

Bitcoin Breakout:

Bitcoin (also as a proxy for the rest of the Crypto market) is breaking out from a descending wedge pattern as seen clearly on the Daily chart below:

A descending wedge is a coil, the breakout higher should be strong – I would like to see buying pick up over the next several days to confirm the breakout.  Note that two days ago price broke the downtrend line, but that line was retested and now prices have bullishly reversed yesterday’s downside move.

There are two historic buy signals on this chart!

First note that the volume on the day prices bottomed at $6,000 was heavier than the surrounding volume – that is a positive. 

More importantly, since 2015 there have only been two prior instances of BTC price actually touching or going below the 200 day moving average (dma).  You can see that prices fell below that average for a few days.  The 200 dma is a very important long term indicator for Bitcoin because it’s hard to tell how far ahead of itself prices are at any point in time.  But at the $20,000 peak price, BTC was almost 4X the 200 dma!  That was a historic over valuation at that level.

EVERY TIME (as in 100% of the time) that prices have been below the 200 dma, it has been a perfect entry point to buy Bitcoin!  Thus, NOW (or any level below or close to the 200 dma) is the right time to be buying via that indicator alone.

Now note on that chart the MACD.  Those low MACD figures represent a historic BTC low.  And if you look at the red circle you will see that from those historic low levels the ‘fast’ has crossed over the ‘slow’ thus indicating a BUY SIGNAL on the Daily MACD.  Note that the weekly MACD is still on a sell, but that the monthly MACD never went to a sell, and is still on buy signal.

The chart below is a WEEKLY BTC chart.  It shows a strong bottom-like Doji candlestick, often seen at bottoms.  The price moving out of the wedge and up from the cross is bullish:

Now please take a good look at the following chart.  I have replaced the MACD indicator at the bottom with RSI (Relative Strength Indicator).  There have been seven instances since the beginning of 2015 where the RSI has touched or dipped below the 30 level.  Just look at the last two times!  Had you bought on each low, the return from July of last year to the next high was 178%, but the return from the September low was a staggering 621%!

So, should you buy when the RSI dips below 30?  YOU BET!  That just happened, again, a good place to buy.  Note that the data for BTC doesn’t go back in time far enough to have useful data on the weekly and monthly chart for RSI.

All these indicators tell me that this chart is bullish, that it is time to get money back to work in the BTC market, keeping in mind that the rest of the Crypto space follows Bitcoin.  I expect to see the overall BTC Market Cap skyrocket from here:

Market Cap Total

Note that total Crypto market cap was cut in half, bottoming just below $400B.  Today it is at $426B, I expect that we will cross the Trillion Market Cap line prior to the end of July.