Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Crypto Update

Nate Update – Broken Back Blues…

For those that missed it, an off road motorcycle crash left me with 3 vertebral compression fractures along with 3 broken ribs in my back.   That accident occurred February 1st, so it’s been almost 3 weeks now.

Tough is how I describe my recovery so far.  The first order of business is to prevent the fractures from getting worse.  That means having any stress off my back.  Yet laying down horizontal in almost any fashion is very uncomfortable – and that has resulted in very limited sleep.  That limited sleep is translating into difficulty writing, so please be patient as I recover.  I am paying attention to the markets and other events, so as I have the energy I’ll get my thoughts out to you.  There are major forces at work right now, and major market turning points approaching in nearly all markets; Those that are REAL (Cryptos), those that are underlying real but highly manipulated (gold, silver, oil, other commodities), and those that are 100% FAKE AND MANIPULATED (Stocks, Bonds, Government Statistics, Derivatives of all types, etc).

And Then There’s Paul Singer’s Update:
“…one of the most brilliant scams in history.”
“We all laugh at primitive tribes which used large stones (or pigs) as currency. Well, laugh as you will, but a stone or a healthy pig is something. Cryptocurrencies are nothing except the marketing power of inventors, financiers and others who love the idea of buying a black box (which is obviously empty) for the price of a Kia and dreaming that it will turn into a Mercedes. There have been times recently when this dream has materialized within hours.”
“This [cryptocurrency] is not just a bubble. It is not just a fraud. It is perhaps the outer limit, the ultimate expression, of the ability of humans to seize upon ether and hope to ride it to the stars…
But is it not glorious that when the equivalent of nothing attracts priests and parishioners who run up the price, the very willingness of the mob to buy it at higher and higher prices is seen as validation of the thing, rather than an indication of the limitless ignorance of swaths of the human race?”

All the above is quoted from billionaire Paul Singer who also just happened to be a part of the group (including Hilary Clinton) that funded the completely fake “Trump Dossier.”

Well, news flash for Mr. Singer:  It is YOU who runs one of the biggest scams in human history – namely the hedge fund named Elliott Management. Your wealth, power, and control are derived from trading in 100% fake financial instruments that not only make a pig blush in its relative brilliance, but your profession and trade are predicated upon the emptiest of all negative value instruments in the history of humanity, the debt DOLLAR.

Bitcoin is not the fraud, it is by far THE MOST VALUABLE form of money ever invented!  How so?  It is the first form of “money” that is NOT centralized by “decree of the King.”  It is the FIRST money to break the MONOPOLY on what money is!

That means, Mr. Singer, that YOU DON’T CONTROL IT!  And that terrifies you and all ilk like you.  And you should be terrified!  Because the base where you derive your power and control is crumbling – YOUR MONOPOLY IS OVER.

The FUD that you propagate is simply not believable, no more than the fake dossier and narrative you helped to promulgate.  The fake “markets” manipulated by people like you ARE OF NO CONSEQUENCE to REAL PEOPLE any longer.  I, for one, could care less about those fake markets, I only pay attention at this point to keep track of your criminality.

Good Riddance, Mr. Singer – Hell, and hopefully prison will see you soon.

For everyone else who wish to support the advancement of humanity, please pay attention to the Bitcoin chart below:

As I pointed out in my last update, Bitcoin produced a historic buy signal, and has been climbing ever since.  First it broke the 200dma, then the descending wedge, now it’s breaking what would be the upper boundary of a descending channel, and next it will break the 100dma on its way to getting over the $13,800 resistance level.

Litecoin is the best looking chart of all the Cryptos right now.  It is obvious that money is flowing into both BTC and LTC, while most of the Alt-Coins are not in cycle remaining mostly flat for now.  Remember that BTC leads, all the others follow.

You can see that in the Percentage of Total Market Cap chart below, BTC’s share of the market has turned back up slightly with BTC at 38.7% of market share:

Also note that total Market Cap of all Cryptos has risen 25% since my last update, now totaling $510 million, up from the $400 million support level:

That was a really fast 25% gain.  I still think we reach the Trillion dollar mark somewhere mid-year.

Despite my loathing of fake people like Mr. Singer, I will be doing a big picture market update for all the major FAKE markets soon.  In that update I will point out what to watch for as the central controllers continue to destroy the value of the debt dollar, and how to know if they are manipulating another debt deflation cycle (and why), or if the end-game for the current version of the debt dollar (still more inflation) has arrived.

Until then, stay real, stay decentralized, and may Karma catch up quickly to those that promulgate FUD.



Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Litecoin Cash – Scam or Legit??

For those who aren’t yet aware, there is a Litecoin fork (first ever) that’s supposed to occur on the 18th or 19th of this month, just a few days away.

Supposedly you can receive 10 Litecoin Cash (LCC) for each LTC you possess at the time of the fork.  This has caused much speculation and has people scrambling to buy LTC prior to the fork.

On the LTC chart, you can see that it just had a major breakout higher and has shot back above $200/coin:

As you can see on that chart, the downtrend has clearly been broken to the upside, it is a very bullish chart.

Note how similarly to BTC, LTC touched the 200 day moving average and has bounced producing a new buy signal on the daily MACD.

But is LCC a scam or is it legit?

According to Litecoin Founder, Charlie Lee, it is a SCAM.  Here are his recent tweets on the subject:

Clearly, Charlie believes it to be a scam.  In fact, he like many others, believe people doing these forks and using the Litecoin or Bitcoin names are inherently weak for trying to piggyback on the name and not doing their own coding and marketing.  I agree with this philosophically.

Most forks piggyback not only on the name, but they use the open source Bitcoin code – in fact that’s exactly what Charlie Lee did, he copied the BTC code, made a few changes, changed the name, and has made millions off it.  Okay, that’s the way open source is, and the BTC source code is far and away the most proven and secure.

Now, when I go to the LCC official website, I find that they list many benefits, including the fact that old BTC mining software will be able to mine LCC.

Their website is respectful and seems to be looking after people’s interest with their “safe fork” discussion.  However, there is no whitepaper and the team is very young and thin with only 4 members.

From the LLC website, here is an LCC comparison table:

Note that Charlie Lee says not to give them your LTC keys in order to claim your LCASH.  I would agree, at least at a minimum I would wait to see if in fact people are successfully claiming them, and that an LCASH wallet actually materializes.

Regarding this, the LCC team seems to agree by stating a truism, “Firstly, NEVER paste private keys that hold any currency into ANY website or wallet in order to claim forked coins (including ours). Practice responsible forking: 1. Wait for the fork; 2. Move your Litecoin to a new address; 3. Use the private key for the "old" address to claim your Litecoin Cash.”

One thing is for certain, with Charlie Lee at Coinbase, don’t expect Coinbase to distribute LCC to your account automatically!  Thus if you wish to claim your LCC, you must ensure that you have your LTC in your possession, inside your own LTC wallet off any exchange (I use Trezor).  Then move the LTC to another wallet or an exchange, then use the old and now empty wallet keys to claim your LCC.

So, I do think there is a high probability that this is a scam, at a minimum it is a fast and loose copy/modification of the LTC/BTC source code.  That said, I do have my LTC off exchange and will be able to claim my LCC once proven.  I will wait and watch before attempting to claim my LCC tokens.  If I am successful, I will immediately sell them since there is no whitepaper, and since the “team” looks to be profiting with minimal effort on their part.  Then I’ll use the proceeds of that sale to purchase LTC.



Tuesday, February 13, 2018

The Lightning Network

Boy am I a fan!  My hope is that this year Segregated Witness and the Lightning Network will radically change the speed and cost of transacting with Bitcoin. 

But wait, there’s more… Lightning also can accommodate cross-block transactions.  This is HUGE, a game changer, because it means that we’ll be able to trade one another different coins directly with NO MIDDLEMEN.  This, and other technologies like Atomic trading and Plasma, mean that days are numbered for exchanges (except to get dollars if required, they are certainly not desired). 

Not only that, but as Andreas Antonopoulos points out in the video below, the Onion Routing will ensure true PRIVACY.  This is also a game changer – it means that we can truly claim our personal monetary and fiscal sovereignty by righting a huge wrong that has been held over humanity’s heads by central bankers.  Namely that they can see everything you do, but you can see nothing they do.  This turns that inside out, in a proper rule of law manner.  Banking secrecy by private individuals illegally given the right to produce unlimited quantities of money is ENDING, and I say “YAY!”  

This fact alone will bring BILLIONS of people worldwide into this new system of “banking.”
Right now lighting is running in a test mode with test nodes.  A node is simply the entire ledger that resides on your computer so that as transactions occur the ledger that exists on your computer can be compared and verified by other ledgers on other computers to verify transactions.  The more nodes, the more robust, and the more decentralized the network is.

Once verified, hopefully later this year, Lightning will release a final version of their node software that likely will include incentives for people running a full Lightning node.  I currently run a full Bitcoin node on my computer and will also run a Lightning node when it is released.  I’ll write more about running your own node later, it’s certainly easy to do and actually doesn’t require any expertise and very little energy and bandwidth – I don’t even notice my computer is running it.

The following video describes roughly how the Lightning Network works:

This video is an interview with Lightning CEO Elizabeth Stark:

And this video is with Andreas Antonopoulos who answers questions about the lightning network:

Monday, February 12, 2018

Video:  More Trace Mayer – BTC Lightning Adoption and Claiming Your Personal Monetary Sovereignty

This is another very interesting interview with Trace Mayer.  Well worth the time, he covers the Lightning Network on top of Bitcoin and how it will speed transactions and lower costs.  He also covers the possibility of Atomic trading, but most importantly discusses how to claim your personal sovereignty now that the monopoly on money has been broken!

Bitcoin Market Update – Breakout with Historic Buy Signals!

Nate Update: 

I have returned from two weeks of very fun off-road motorcycle riding in Southern Utah.  That’s the good news. 

The bad news is that I had a 30+ mph encounter with a boulder and the boulder won – launching me into a head/back landing that resulted in 3 fractured ribs and 3 compression fractures in my vertebrae! 

Painful for sure, but thankfully I will heal - hopefully with little or no lasting damage.  Soft tissues are already better, but bones take longer to heal. In the meantime, my energy level is returning already, but not quite what it was, so expect a slow ramp back up into things.

Bitcoin Breakout:

Bitcoin (also as a proxy for the rest of the Crypto market) is breaking out from a descending wedge pattern as seen clearly on the Daily chart below:

A descending wedge is a coil, the breakout higher should be strong – I would like to see buying pick up over the next several days to confirm the breakout.  Note that two days ago price broke the downtrend line, but that line was retested and now prices have bullishly reversed yesterday’s downside move.

There are two historic buy signals on this chart!

First note that the volume on the day prices bottomed at $6,000 was heavier than the surrounding volume – that is a positive. 

More importantly, since 2015 there have only been two prior instances of BTC price actually touching or going below the 200 day moving average (dma).  You can see that prices fell below that average for a few days.  The 200 dma is a very important long term indicator for Bitcoin because it’s hard to tell how far ahead of itself prices are at any point in time.  But at the $20,000 peak price, BTC was almost 4X the 200 dma!  That was a historic over valuation at that level.

EVERY TIME (as in 100% of the time) that prices have been below the 200 dma, it has been a perfect entry point to buy Bitcoin!  Thus, NOW (or any level below or close to the 200 dma) is the right time to be buying via that indicator alone.

Now note on that chart the MACD.  Those low MACD figures represent a historic BTC low.  And if you look at the red circle you will see that from those historic low levels the ‘fast’ has crossed over the ‘slow’ thus indicating a BUY SIGNAL on the Daily MACD.  Note that the weekly MACD is still on a sell, but that the monthly MACD never went to a sell, and is still on buy signal.

The chart below is a WEEKLY BTC chart.  It shows a strong bottom-like Doji candlestick, often seen at bottoms.  The price moving out of the wedge and up from the cross is bullish:

Now please take a good look at the following chart.  I have replaced the MACD indicator at the bottom with RSI (Relative Strength Indicator).  There have been seven instances since the beginning of 2015 where the RSI has touched or dipped below the 30 level.  Just look at the last two times!  Had you bought on each low, the return from July of last year to the next high was 178%, but the return from the September low was a staggering 621%!

So, should you buy when the RSI dips below 30?  YOU BET!  That just happened, again, a good place to buy.  Note that the data for BTC doesn’t go back in time far enough to have useful data on the weekly and monthly chart for RSI.

All these indicators tell me that this chart is bullish, that it is time to get money back to work in the BTC market, keeping in mind that the rest of the Crypto space follows Bitcoin.  I expect to see the overall BTC Market Cap skyrocket from here:

Market Cap Total

Note that total Crypto market cap was cut in half, bottoming just below $400B.  Today it is at $426B, I expect that we will cross the Trillion Market Cap line prior to the end of July.



Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Trace Mayer about Bitcoin’s (Initial) $2.8 Million Value Proposition…

Can't say enough about how spot on Trace Mayer is in this most excellent video.

Not only is the well spoken Trace Mayer right about bitcoin’s value proposition, but he thoroughly understands money, the history thereof, and the criminality that is the current central banking system.

Note the immutability of Bitcoin compared to other Cryptos… Video is well worth the time.