Monday, January 22, 2018

Update – Real People Possess Real Bitcoin! Futures and ETF Edition…

*Note: I will be traveling for the next two weeks and will be unable to make posts on a regular basis until I return.

Downward pressure on the entire space obviously continues.  There has been a series of H&S patterns as well as bearish flags that have all worked to take prices lower.  There is one pattern that is still targeting the $8,400 range, that target has not been reached and is still valid.  Here’s the Big Picture Daily chart:

Here’s a 30 minute chart, I can’t remember seeing a chart that had so many well developed H&S patterns in such close proximity:

There is a definite psychology to Head & Shoulder patterns, these are classic patterns and actually do not look contrived or manipulated to me.  If you want to see contrived, just look at a chart of the DJIA, S&P500, or NASDAQ.  There you will find manipulation, historic overvaluation, and a classic bubble.

So the question then is: Are the banks manipulating the price of Bitcoin (and by extension other coins as well)?  

There certainly are a lot who think so – and it doesn’t help that the top was put in the day Bitcoin futures began trading!  The fear of Bitcoin manipulation looks like this:

At about $5,000 BTC the banks start buying actual BTC like crazy rapidly running the price up.  Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPM, calls BTC a “fraud” in order to intentionally drive the price down.  Meanwhile JPM and other banks are buying with both fists (they can simply materialize Dollars after all).  They buy hard running up to the opening day of the futures market.

On opening day they short BTC like crazy via the new futures market and begin selling their actual Bitcoins, thus driving the price back down in order to profit on their futures bets…  Once they run out of BTC to sell, they will flip that trade, begin buying, rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat.

That’s the thinking, but is that reality?

First of all, there is no doubt that it should be understood that banks and bankers are NOT your friend.  Nor are they the friend of humanity – period.  So none of that is beneath them, for sure.
This seems “foggy” to most people, so let’s examine the mechanics involved in both Futures and ETFs:


Futures are EXACTLY like gambling – they are, in fact, legalized gambling.  They are a bet on the future price of an underlying asset – be it gold, silver, oil, Bitcoin, or whatever.

The CME Group is the exchange that handles trades of Bitcoin futures.  An important aspect of their futures contracts is that all settlements are in CASH, NOT BITCOIN.  This means that they do NOT need to own any Bitcoin in order to settle payment. 

There are rumors going around that the banks have made deals with the exchanges in order to use Bitcoin held by the exchanges as backing for those futures contracts.  This is not necessary since the banks can and do settle all BTC futures contracts in Dollars – remember, banks can simply turn on their printer to make more Dollars, they don’t have to own BTC.  They are running a betting parlor, a gambling side show that has ZERO function on behalf of a proper society.

This is not to say that there aren't legitimate uses for some futures, there are – like airlines and other businesses who use them to hedge the price of oil.  But a need to hedge the price of BTC?  Not yet.
So if the regulators think its okay to trade BTC futures, why would they turn down every application to date to create an ETF?

Oh yes, we’ve heard their excuses – you know, they are trying to “protect us.”  LOL


No, they don’t give a rats behind about you or me losing our money!  They steal it every chance they get, it’s a laughable proposition that some banker or regulator is “protecting” the public.

There are two types of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  One type is just a piece of paper where the scammers who organize it claim to follow the price of the underlying asset – gold, silver, real estate, bonds, whatever.  They take exorbitant fees all along the way, and thus these paper tigers rarely, if ever, maintain the value anywhere near equal to the actual underlying.  Why would you own them over the underlying?  Only for short term trades so that you don’t have the hassle of taking possession – that’s it.  Oh, and you can leverage these (the slippage is even more pronounced over non-levered ETFs).

The other type of ETF is one whose charter documents require the company to actually own the underlying asset in an amount (close to) equal with the amount of funds deposited into the ETF.  This is like GLD and SLV – they are required to actually buy physical gold or silver.

And this is EXACTLY what the banks and regulators DO NOT WANT!  Why?

Because, unlike any other asset on the planet, and especially unlike any financial asset on the planet, Bitcoin is strictly limited in quantity!  That means that if money goes into an ETF that is required to buy it, then the price will rise, it will draw more interest, and that interest will weaken their power and control.  That’s the real reason.

This is a very important point – When you invest in any paper financial asset, you are buying something from them… and then they simply make another, and another, and then 10 trillion more!

But Bitcoin, nuh, uh!  No sir.  You buy a bitcoin and there is no making a new one – no replacing it, no forging it, no hacking it.  The decentralized trusted ledger makes this possible – and it is a revolution for humanity.  So imagine a BTC ETF that requires the fund to own actual BTC… There are only 16 million BTC, what do you think pumping millions and billions more into BTC via ETFs will do? 

I highly doubt they will allow it anytime soon – maybe a pure paper ETF, that would take money that otherwise may have found its way into the actual underlying.  And that is why paper dollar settled futures and ETFs only - they are a-okay in diluting Bitcoin as it brings them wealth, power, and control.  But they will strictly attack anything that promotes the underlying BTC - watch for this, it will become clear.

What they really care about is that they know Bitcoin and the coins that aren’t issued or controlled by them erode their power base.  They are losing control, and they know it.  It’s very small right now, and they intend to keep it that way if they can.

I can assure you and them that they have lost already – it’s only a matter of time.

PLEASE – For the sake of humanity – do not put a single dollar into any paper BTC product!!  Those who do are as complicit as those who make them – karma will take care of them in the end.

REAL PEOPLE OWN REAL BITCOIN – and they take the actual coin off the exchange and put it in their own electronic wallet – that way the exchanges cannot “FRACTIONALIZE” BTC which I can tell you they all do. 


Be Real – I’ll return in a couple of weeks for more.


Saturday, January 20, 2018

Crypto Update – Government Shutdown = Bitcoin UP

The reaction to the government shutdown is quite interesting.  Of course most markets were closed at the time, but stocks, bonds, and even gold mostly yawned while they were open knowing that it was likely to occur.

Then when it did occur, BTC rose sharply, climbing more than $1,000 per coin.  Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Ripple, Ethereum, none rose the way BTC did.  Also, the Alt coins largely did not follow, and those that did only rose by a much smaller degree.  What does that tell us?

To me it says that Bitcoin is the flight to safety trade – and that means that as an asset, it will benefit in crisis, and as the Dollar takes more and more hits, it will be the preferred place to own “money.”

The truth is that Bitcoin is FAR BETTER in all aspects of “money” than either the Dollar or gold!  How can I say so?  It is strictly limited in supply, making it a far better store of value.  It is far better transactionally than gold, and actually is far better than the Dollar in that regard as well!  It’s easier to store than either, easier to move, it’s simply a better form of money!  This despite criticism of it being slow, but please compare that statement to trying to move gold or dollars around the world and you will see a clear winner.

Now ask yourself which is better for humanity, and where you should put your money should be obvious.

Bitcoin is currently continuing its climb after breaking up and out of a pennant formation last night:

The target on that break is the upper down slopping line that currently resides in the $15,000 neighborhood.  Here’s the big picture chart showing the descending wedge:

I would expect that we will not likely break through that line initially, although if we do it will be extremely bullish. 

My expectation is that once we touch that line again, price will fall.  My hope is that it only falls a short way, regains upward momentum, then breaks it.  But the descending wedge pattern says that we could touch the upper boundary, then descend one more time to touch the lower boundary – so don’t be surprised if that occurs.

I think the lesson of last night is that BTC is the preferred store of money value for the world.  Don’t let short term corrections and negative talk take your eye off the long term play here.  I still believe BTC is going to $40k by the first half of the year, $100k before the year is out.

You should be aggressively long BTC on a break of the upper descending trendline if you’re not already.

Have a great Government shutdown weekend.  No, I don’t feel sorry or sad about it – our very bad behavior, breakdown of a proper rule-of-law, terrible role modeling, and negative karma will eventually bite much harder than this.  The role of the Dollar is appropriately diminishing, humanity is righting the ship by fixing the most important thing – breaking the monopoly on money that gives the bad actors their power and control over the entire globe. 


Friday, January 19, 2018

Trading Alert – BTC Bullish Break Higher!

After pointing out this morning a potentially bearish pattern, a bullish one manifested itself later.  Instead of breaking lower, Bitcoin prices hung out all day between $11,000 and $12,000. 

Just now a break above the top of a bullish pennant occurred on heavier volume.  Here’s a 15 minute chart showing the break:

The target for the pennant is expected that it rises the distance of the staff.  In this case almost exactly $3,000.  It broke at $12,000, so the target is right at the $15,000 mark.  That would place prices back above the $13,800 line that we’ve crossed so many times, and it would also place them just at the large down slopping line that marks the top of the very large Pennant/Descending wedge I pointed out earlier.  Here’s another view of the big picture chart:

I would not expect prices to penetrate that line unless momentum is way higher than it has been.  Still, a nice looking break higher, and if that target is reached it will be a sizable move in the right direction.

Interesting that this break higher comes within minutes of government failing to pass a continuing spending bill, thus effectively shutting the government down.  Hmmm.  Faith in BTC, but losing faith in .gov and the central banker dollar.



Thursday, January 18, 2018

Cryptos Out of the Woods? Dollar Dying?

Yesterday’s selloff ended at BTC $9,000.  This was an interesting place for it to end as there really was no support in that zone.  So what happened? 

I think it’s very interesting that the bottom seemed to coincide with Binance’s reopening to new accounts – but it also coincided with yesterday’s expiration of the first month’s BTC Futures on Wall Street.  Note that BTC topped the day futures trading began, and has descended non-stop ever since.   Something changed yesterday – I think new money coming in was the biggest factor, and the Alts rose largely on this.

Another positive piece of news was the rising up of the South Korean people!  More than 210,000 people signed a petition demanding that their government stay out of their exchanges (the petition does allow for some regulation, but certainly not exchange closure). 

How about that?  Again, the monopoly on money is over, people have had enough, and I believe that our collective conscious is now aware enough of the abuse that we’re not going to allow it to continue.  This backlash can be seen as countries are revolting against the Dollar, and people in general are losing faith in it, and in oversized gargantuan government.

These are BIG WAVES playing out around the world right now.  The Dollar index is falling dramatically.  Our broken government is on the verge of shutdown as politics and debt Dollar money are 100% intertwined.  The rise of Cryptos is humanity walking away from such nonsense.

Importantly, the 10 year bond is breaking above the downtrend line established during the financial crisis of 2008:

This is a very important thing!  As bonds go up in rates, they go down in value!  You don’t want to own bonds when rates are rising, you do want to own them when rates are falling. 

So, if rates are going to rise further, then people are going to sell bonds.  When they sell, they temporarily convert them to Dollars.  Then what do they do with them?  If it were me, I’d buy Cryptos!  But keep in mind that these are mostly held by large banks (who would also be smart to be buying Cryptos).

These rate changes are the root of movement, they represent movement.  What occurs in Bonds ripples through to the stock market.  Money flowing into the markets as rates move higher (leaving bonds).  Money flowing into gold as rates move higher.  Money flowing into Cryptos as rates move higher.

But at some point rising rates run up against the impossible math of debt – debt saturation for individuals, for small business and for large corporations, for local, state, and federal governments.  All are saturated with debt.  The housing market in particular is built upon debt leverage – rising rates makes homes more expensive versus income.

So, you may wind up with a situation where stocks start to unwind the melt-up.  Money fleeing bonds, money fleeing stocks?  The logical recipient is gold and Cryptos.  But remember that as markets start to sink that most mainstream knuckleheads sell other assets first!  That’s because it’s their mission to exercise power and control over the globe – bonds, stocks, and debt Dollars is how they do it.

So don’t be surprised if other assets are sold first – but then a tidal wave of Dollars will flood into truly safe assets as those Dollars begin to seek safe haven – a place where they will be treated well, much better than in a bank.

But as the Dollar sinks and rises against the basket of other worth less and less money, I do think it's in serious trouble mathematically.  Yes, the Dollar (in its current debt rendition) is dying.


Possibly, I’m cautiously optimistic.  They did rise sharply off the $9,000 bottom and did reach $12,000 this morning.  That’s a 30% rise off the bottom – huge for a one day move.  We now need to see prices stay above the $11,200 area, consolidate and then move higher.  If we slip below $11,200 on BTC, then we need to evaluate.

Here’s a big picture chart of BTC – I am tentatively labeling yesterday’s low as wave C:

Note that the formation now has taken on the appearance of a very large flag – this is known as a descending wedge.  Descending wedges are bullish.  This is a very large wedge, thus the price move out of it will also be very large.  Also note that the $13,800 area will likely coincide with the top of the wedge by the time prices arrive there.  That top of the wedge line will initially be resistance, but once broken, you need to be in for the rocket ride that follows!

Until that happens, it is also possible that the selling is not truly over.  Wedges can have several or even many touches – thus it’s possibly that prices bounce off both boundaries for a while.  That would mean that lower lows may come.  It’s also possible for prices to “spill out” of the mouth of a descending wedge – it is not a 100% of the time bullish formation, but it is the majority of the time.  It is most likely expected to play out something like this:

So if the correction was a simple ABC, then we may very well proceed to the top of the wedge and break higher without making another new low.  However, if the wedge extends in time, then we could continue to zig-zag, and may put in a lower low that touches the bottom boundary. 

Bottom line is that we’re not entirely out of the woods until we break the upper descending downtrend line.  But I am seeing some bullish formations, inverse H&S patterns on a couple of different levels are possible.  But the fuel has to come, so we’ll see if they play out that way, or if prices lose momentum again.  A breather is expected as they’ve come a long way pretty quickly.

Best to your trading or Hodling strategy! (I played that bounce heavily and am happy to have gotten back into TRX at 4 cents!  My thinking is that as long as Binance remains open then the Alts should do better).


Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Crypto Update – Where Does the Selling End? Did Binance Reopen?

First of all, it appears that Binance has reopened to new accounts without publicizing it (Binance Registration).  If you’ve been waiting to get in, please do so promptly as they could close it off again at any time.


Having broken through $10,000 this morning, as I type we’re now down to $9,200.

Yesterday I spotted two formations – one a Head & Shoulders that is targeting the low $8,000 range, and the other was a bearish pennant targeting the low $9,000 range which we’ve already hit.
So this morning I set about once again evaluating possible Elliott Wave counts and re-examining Fibonacci Retracement levels.

There’s really no support from here until about $8,200.  But when I look at what I now see as a potential E.W. count, I see that the descent can really be labeled as a very large ABC.  See chart below:

If this is what is happening, then when the length of C is equal to the length of A is the question.  That calculates right to the $7,800 mark.  A happy coincidence is that when I put Fibonacci retracement over the entire run up in BTC, a 61.8% retrace is right at $7,762.  I like to see targets in the same area calculated by more than one analysis technique.

So, I think the odds are now high that we do take the excursion down to $8,200 or lower, and that a bottom is likely around that $7,800 mark.  Should that area not hold, then the next area likely is in the $5,000 to $6,000 range.  But from what I see right now, I think odds favor a landing just below $8,000.

That said, if prices were to rise back above the $10,200 level, and stay there, then a bullish pattern could develop.  I am starting to see some bullish divergences, so let’s see what happens. 

A GOOD ENTRY POINT IS COMING, or is here already, and really buying at these levels is a gift – thank you sociopathic world controllers!  When markets move like this there is great opportunity.  When markets behave like the 100% captured stock markets, there is little opportunity, mostly very high risk.

We know that the Crypto market is volatile, it has 50% corrections more than once per year!  It’s normal in markets that are new, especially when the establishment is doing everything in their power to choke it.  Again, their sociopathic controlling ways will fail to stop this – their monopoly on money has ended, they aren’t getting it back.

So I LAUGH at “professionals” like the new “Bond King” Gundlach, whose fortunes are tied to debt Dollars, slam those who see Bitcoin and other Cryptos as a more safe and sane alternative to the giant moral hazard created by them!

The next technical Analysis question to ask is what degree, or what wave was it that topped at just under $20,000?  Goldman Sachs technicians are labeling that as the top of wave 3 up.  That would mean this ABC is a wave 4, and that the next wave higher will be 5.

At this stage, I would probably not agree with that count.  Had that large triangle held in the sideways pattern, then it would be behaving like a wave 4.  But a retracement that exceeds 50% as this one has, and is likely to hit a 61.8% retracement is more likely to be a wave 2.  That means that large degree wave 1 up would have ended at $20,000, and it means the next up wave is an even more powerful wave 3.  That would match the trajectory of the numbers I see coming with Early Adopter Phase.

For those that missed my article, “Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency Revolution – The Most Important Change of Your Lifetime, and Why it Will Spark Humanity’s Next Renaissance!”, here is the way I see the technology S curve and Innovation wave playing out for the Crypto industry:

Bitcoin was founded in 2009, thus it has been 9 years for the Innovator wave.  But I think the waves accelerate in time from here since Crypto is software based, it resides on hardware that already exists.

If you project the growth path of Bitcoin and the number of users obtaining electronic wallets, then the Early Adopter phase could be as short as only 2 to 4 years in length!  

That would mean that 30% of the population of the globe would own Cryptos by approximately the year 2020.  By 2022 the majority of the world will be transacting in one crypto form or another.  For this year, 2018, I expect more than 10% by the end of year, up from the 1.5 to 2.5% today.

Just look at Binance’s numbers!  Two million new subscribers per week.  That’s not the innovation phase, that says the tidal wave is coming.

We’re now retesting $10,000 from below.  If it were to regain it and hold, then we could easily label this morning’s low as the bottom of wave C.  But let’s see, we need to see strong buying come in for that to happen, otherwise I think we’re headed to $7,800.

If you haven’t sold already, then selling now is probably the exact wrong thing to do – remember, to make money, you want to buy when others are fearful, and sell when other are euphoric!


Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Crypto Update – Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt! FUD…

Just a quick update to let folks know what I see.  Obviously the large triangle we’ve all been tracking has broken to the downside.  That’s pretty bearish, and there are formations that tell me Bitcoin price, and most of the space follows, is heading into the sub $10,000 range.

For those whose philosophy is to ‘HODL’ – then great.  I say that absolutely nothing has changed fundamentally and that the figures I’ve been talking for the first and second halves of the year will absolutely be achieved.  So if you are sitting on your Crypto – hang tight, psychology works against most people, forcing the majority to sell at exactly the wrong time.

If you have new money to put to work, then any level beneath here is a great place to put it to work!

We have sociopaths around the globe, in South Korea, in China, in Germany, and all central bankers - who have taken notice of how these diminish their power and control.  We always knew they would not go quietly, but I can assure you that they have already lost.  Thus their words are meaningless, except to put FUD into those who aren’t focused on the end result.  Yes, they can tamp down psychology momentarily, but in the end for them, Pandora’s box has already been opened, and will remain open.

For those who are actively trading, I personally went to as much cash (dollars) as I could at the break of the triangle – I will be rebuying hopefully at lower levels with those dollars, but certainly will have it back in before crossing that same triangle bottom on the way back up. 

For the rest that I could not sell, due to exchange cash limitations, I will HODL.  Most of the Alts are getting hit harder than BTC, but I see relative strength in ETH, LTC, and what was strength in NEO has now been hit hard too.

I have two targets currently from the chart below.  One puts BTC in the low to mid $9,000 range, but the other puts it in the low to mid $8,000 range (from both the last H&S pattern and the initial leg drop from it).  Prices need to reverse upwards now, or those targets become likely:

If we reach those target areas I will begin incrementally buying back in, especially if I see signs of capitulation selling (high volume sell off, followed by high volume reversal).

The melt-up bubble in the stock market is showing signs of losing momentum today – but momentum is very strong and uptrends are still intact.  Once that reverses, I expect to see an initial flight to safety that will benefit the Dollar first.  This is because all markets are priced in dollars, and when you sell stocks and debt instruments you convert them to Dollars first, thus increasing Dollar demand.

But that may be short lived, and momentum chasers may begin to pile back into cryptos that are now half the price they were.  So we need to watch all markets to see the rotation of the flow of money – we’ll see momentum wane in one asset, then build in another.  I think that there’s also big bottle necks in the Crypto space right now with some of the largest exchanges closed off to new money.  It very well may be that we need to see them reopen in order to regain positive momentum.